We propose a statistical mechanical framework for the modeling of discrete time series. Maximum likelihood estimation is done via Boltzmann learning in one-dimensional networks with tied weights.

Statistical models of discrete time series have a wide range of applications, most notably to problems in speech recognition (Juang & Rabiner, 1991) and molecular biology (Baldi, Chauvin, Hunkapiller, & McClure, 1992). A common problem in these fields is to find a probabilistic model, and a set of model parameters, that 436 Lawrence K. Saul, Michael I. Jordan

Statistical models of discrete time series have a wide range of applications, most notably to problems in speech recognition (Juang & Rabiner, 1991) and molecular biology (Baldi, Chauvin, Hunkapiller, & McClure, 1992). A common problem in these fields is to find a probabilistic model, and a set of model parameters, that 436 Lawrence K. Saul, Michael I. Jordan

Statistical models of discrete time series have a wide range of applications, most notably to problems in speech recognition (Juang & Rabiner, 1991) and molecular biology (Baldi, Chauvin, Hunkapiller, & McClure, 1992). A common problem in these fields is to find a probabilistic model, and a set of model parameters, that 436 LawrenceK. Saul, Michael I. Jordan account for sequences of observed data. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been particularly successful at modeling discrete time series. One reason for this is the powerful learning rule (Baum) 1972») a special case of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) procedure for maximum likelihood estimation (Dempster) Laird) & Rubin) 1977).